Sinn Féin’s decision to back Catherine Connolly is indeed a ‘game-changer’. It increases the chances of her winning the Presidency, especially as the combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is running at just 40%. These two parties, let’s remember, used to command nearly 80% of the popular vote.
However, its significance extends far beyond these numbers.
This Presidential election will be a straight left-right contest. Those who support landlords, the ending of Irish neutrality, and a return to a more traditional Ireland will back a FF or FG candidate. And, despite their historic enmity, these two parties will have a high transfer rate. They will vote on class lines – their interests lie in keeping out the left.
By contrast, most of the locked-out generation who suffer high rents or who want to stop the drive to war, will vote for Catherine Connolly. They see her as a defender of women’s rights and an activist who has protested at US troops in Shannon. They know she will stand up against the racism of the far right.
Interestingly, this is why Aontú, who pretend to have a social justice agenda alongside their attacks on immigrants, say they want another candidate who ‘shares their values’. In other words, a figure on the right.
The Irish Presidency has little power and is mainly symbolic. But, as Catherine Connolly says, symbols matter, and this election can become a harbinger for breaking the FF/FG grip. The election of Mary Robinson in 1990, for example, was a harbinger for the Spring tide in 1992 when Labour doubled its vote and its seats.
The fact Robinson was a Hilary Clinton-style liberal and that Dick Spring threw away the left gains by joining a dreadful coalition with Fine Gael does not detract from the general point – it only shows that you can never trust the Labour Party.
The Catherine Connolly campaign has already had one accomplishment. The bigger parties of the left, particularly Sinn Féin, are now talking of the need to exclude FF and FG from government. Yet just over a year ago, none of these parties refused to rule out a coalition with them. Labour and the Social Democrats, for example, prevaricated until the last moment, meeting the right-wing parties to discuss a possible programme for government. Only People Before Profit said that they would never join.
This in turn, points to how Catherine Connolly’s campaign could galvanise the left. She could indicate that a major element of her campaign is breaking the grip of FF/FG over political offices, and if elected, be willing to throw a spanner in their works. Despite its largely symbolic nature, the Irish Presidency could slow down the removal of the Triple Lock by referring any bill passed by the Dáil for scrutiny by the Supreme Court. Hardly earth-shattering stuff, but, as they say, symbolic.
Such a campaign would, of course, run up against the norms of looking Presidential. These tend to stress personal qualities and staying ‘above politics’. But norms are there to be broken and already, the FF candidate, Jim Gavin, has been characterised as a man of no opinion. Fionnán Sheahan of the Irish Independent hit the nail on the head:
“Jim Gavin, (is) a man who hasn’t had an opinion on politics, society and life in general in 30 years. Micheál’s “anti-D” candidate is the perfect remedy for those who long for the pre-Mary Robinson era where the president was a relatively silent man above in the Park who never bothered anyone.”
Finally, it may be asked why Rebel is so enthusiastic about the Catherine Connolly campaign. Despite holding similar positions on many issues – she once voted for Richard Boyd Barrett to be Taoiseach – it is no secret that Catherine Connolly and Rebel do not share the exact politics. Rebel openly declares for revolutionary socialism – Catherine Connolly is a good left reformist.
However, revolutionary politics do not consist of shouting from the sidelines to an anonymous working class. One strategic aim is to move those who already declare to be on the left to more radical positions. A key element here is convincing them to be more confident, assertive, and to break rules.
By helping to forge a clear left-right divide over the Presidency, we have moved a little closer to the possibility of a real left government in the future that, for the first time in Irish history, excludes FF and FG.
The next step lies in debating what such a left government will look like and what it will do. That prospect will surely raise the temperature of class conflict in Ireland. And the issue will then become: are we willing to do what it takes to win?
